Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty that Jacksonville's high today will hit 96°F, driven by a forecasted heat wave, but the risk of storms cooling the temperature could still produce a surprise.
📊 Base rate: Historically, Jacksonville's daily high on July 26 averages around 91°F, with a 96°F or higher reading occurring in less than 10% of years, making the current 98% bet a sharp deviation from the base rate.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 headline from FL Times-Union warns of 'extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend', directly supporting the 96°F threshold.
- • Earlier headlines from March and May show that Florida has experienced record-high temperatures and abnormal warmth, setting a pattern of heat that may persist.
- • The odds have moved to 98% likely due to the latest forecast models showing high confidence in reaching at least 96°F today.
The case for YES
- • The heat wave is already in effect, with forecasts indicating highs well above 96°F for the Jacksonville area.
- • The market's high confidence reflects that the temperature is likely already at or near 96°F by the time of the contract resolution.
- • No major cooling factors (e.g., sea breeze, thunderstorms) are expected to override the intense heat before the daily high is recorded.
The case for NO
- • The same forecast that warns of extreme heat also warns of storms, which could bring cloud cover and rain, lowering the temperature below 96°F.
- • The 2% No price suggests some residual risk that the high falls just short, e.g., 95°F, due to localized cooling.
- • Historical base rate makes a 96°F reading rare, and the current weather pattern may not be as extreme as modeled, leaving room for a miss.
What to watch
- • The official daily high temperature reading from the National Weather Service later today will resolve the contract; if it reaches 96°F, Yes resolves, if not, No.
- • Any updated NWS forecast today that lowers the expected high could increase No odds, while a steady or raised forecast would reinforce Yes.
- • The actual onset of thunderstorms this afternoon could suppress the temperature, moving odds toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance