Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty (98%) that Jacksonville's high on July 25 will reach 96°F, driven by a July 24 forecast of extreme heat and a history of record-breaking temperatures earlier in the year.
What's driving it
- • 2026-07-24 headline: 'Extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend' — the most recent forecast directly supports the 96°F threshold.
- • Earlier headlines (Mar 9, Mar 11, May 13) indicate a pattern of unusually hot temperatures in Florida, setting the stage for the current high odds.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly calls for extreme heat, making a 96°F high plausible.
- • Seasonal norms: Jacksonville in late July typically has highs around 92°F, so 96°F is only 4°F above average, within the range of heat waves.
- • Recent record highs in March (see Mar 9 headline) show the region can exceed normal temperatures significantly.
The case for NO
- • If the forecasted storms bring clouds and rain, highs could be suppressed below 96°F.
- • The forecast is for the weekend, but actual high may be lower if the heat wave breaks earlier than expected.
- • Prior volatility in Jacksonville weather (Feb 19 headline about swings from 80s to 30s) suggests forecasts can be unreliable.
What to watch
- • 2026-07-26: Official temperature data from NOAA or local weather service will confirm the July 25 high, likely moving odds toward 100% if it reaches 96°F.
- • Any updated forecast from the National Weather Service on July 25 morning could have shifted odds if it downgraded the heat, though no such headline is provided.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance