Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The 98% odds for Jacksonville hitting 96°F on July 26 reflect a short-term extreme heat event forecast just two days prior, but the broader context of wild temperature swings this year—from record highs in March to drastic drops—shows that such certainty is fragile.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, July daily highs historically average around 91°F, with temperatures reaching 96°F or above only about 10-15% of days in the month, based on NOAA climate normals.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline from the FL Times-Union warns of 'extreme heat' ahead for Jacksonville this weekend, directly supporting the high odds for July 26 (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • The odds jumped to 98% likely because the forecast is only two days out, giving high confidence in the predicted temperature, though no specific forecast model is cited in the headlines.
- • Earlier March headlines show record highs and then a sharp drop to 'freezer' conditions, indicating that Jacksonville's weather can shift rapidly, which tempers the certainty implied by the 98% odds (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
The case for YES
- • The most recent forecast, just two days before the date, explicitly calls for extreme heat, making a high of 96°F plausible (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Florida has already flirted with record highs earlier this year, showing the region can reach such temperatures (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
- • The short lead time between the forecast and the event means weather models are typically accurate for daily highs within a few degrees.
The case for NO
- • Jacksonville's weather has shown extreme volatility this year, with a 50°F swing in one day in February and a plunge from record highs to near-freezing in March, suggesting a sudden change could disrupt the forecast (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27; FL Times-Union, Feb 19).
- • The 98% odds imply near-certainty, but even a slight shift in a thunderstorm or cloud cover could keep the high below 96°F, as the July 24 headline also mentions storms ahead.
- • No specific temperature forecast is provided in the headlines, only a general 'extreme heat' warning, leaving room for the actual high to fall short of the 96°F threshold.
What to watch
- • The release of the official National Weather Service forecast for July 26 on the morning of July 25 or 26 would either confirm or contradict the extreme heat warning, likely moving odds toward Yes if it shows 96°F+ or toward No if it shows lower (direction: Yes if confirmed, No if downgraded).
- • Any new headline on July 25 or 26 about a cold front or thunderstorm activity moving into Jacksonville could rapidly reduce the odds of hitting 96°F (direction: No).
- • The actual temperature reading at 4-5 PM on July 26 will resolve the market; if it reaches 96°F, odds go to 100% Yes; if not, they collapse to 0%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance