Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The 98% odds for Jacksonville hitting 95°F on July 26 reflect a short-term extreme heat event forecast just two days prior, not a long-term climate trend, making the market highly sensitive to any last-minute forecast shift.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's historical daily high for late July averages around 91°F, with 95°F occurring roughly 5-10% of days in the month based on NOAA climate normals, so the current 98% odds are far above the climatological prior.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 headline from the FL Times-Union explicitly forecasts 'extreme heat' for Jacksonville this weekend, directly supporting the 95°F threshold (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • No other recent headlines mention a specific 95°F forecast; the odds appear driven entirely by that single short-range forecast, with no contradictory weather updates since.
- • Earlier headlines from March and February show Jacksonville's temperature volatility (swings from record highs to freezes), but these are too distant to influence the current 48-hour forecast window.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of 'extreme heat' for the weekend, aligning with a 95°F high.
- • Jacksonville has a history of rapid temperature swings into record territory, as seen in March 2026 when temps plummeted from record highs (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • The forecast is only two days out, giving it high short-term accuracy relative to longer-range predictions.
The case for NO
- • Jacksonville's average late-July high is ~91°F, making 95°F a rare event that requires a specific heat dome or unusual setup, which may not materialize.
- • The March 2026 'frying pan into the freezer' headline shows that even record heat can collapse quickly, and a single weekend forecast can be revised downward.
- • No headline explicitly states a 95°F forecast; the 'extreme heat' warning is vague and could mean highs in the low 90s with humidity.
What to watch
- • July 26 morning update from the National Weather Service or local media: a downgrade to below 95°F would sharply drop Yes odds; an upgrade or confirmation would lock in the current high odds.
- • Any report of a cold front or thunderstorm activity on July 26 could cap temperatures, pushing odds toward No.
- • A midday temperature reading on July 26 below 90°F by noon would signal the high is unlikely to reach 95°F, moving odds toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance