Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty that Jacksonville will hit 96°F on July 25, 2026, driven by a recent extreme heat warning and the region's summer climatology, but the 2% No side reflects the possibility of a thunderstorm or cold front disrupting the peak temperature.
📊 Base rate: In July, Jacksonville's average daily high is about 91°F, and temperatures reach 96°F or higher roughly 10-15% of days in a typical summer, making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warns of 'extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend' (FL Times-Union, Jul 24), directly supporting the Yes outcome.
- • The market is likely reacting to short-term weather models that show a strong ridge of high pressure, though no specific model data is cited in the provided headlines.
- • Earlier March headlines about record highs (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27) and Florida flirting with records (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9) establish a pattern of extreme heat events in the region this year.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat for the weekend, which includes July 25, making a high of 96°F plausible.
- • Jacksonville's summer climatology peaks in late July, with daily highs often reaching the mid-90s, and the region has already seen record-breaking heat earlier in 2026 (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • No recent headlines suggest a cooling trend or unusual weather pattern that would suppress temperatures below 96°F.
The case for NO
- • The same July 24 headline also mentions 'storms ahead,' and a thunderstorm or heavy cloud cover could cap the high temperature below 96°F by reducing solar heating.
- • A cold front or sea breeze from the Atlantic could push temperatures lower than forecast, as seen in February's 'weather swings drastically' (FL Times-Union, Feb 19), though that was a different season.
- • Weather models can be wrong; a slight shift in the ridge position or an unexpected cloud deck could keep the high at 95°F or lower, a risk the 2% odds reflect.
What to watch
- • July 25 morning weather balloon data and model updates: if they show a stronger ridge or drier air, odds move toward Yes; if they show increased cloud cover or a front, odds move toward No.
- • July 25 midday temperature readings: if Jacksonville reaches 94°F by noon, the chance of hitting 96°F rises, pushing odds higher; if it's only 90°F, odds could drop sharply.
- • Any official heat advisory or excessive heat warning issued by the National Weather Service on July 25 would strongly reinforce the Yes case.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance