Las Vegas Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAS_072526_111
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is essentially resolved, with a 98% probability that Las Vegas hit the specified temperature threshold on July 25, 2026, reflecting a summer of persistent extreme heat across the region.
📊 Base rate: Las Vegas average July high is about 104°F, but without knowing the exact threshold, a precise historical base rate cannot be given.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heatwave shattered high-temperature records across the US West (The Guardian, Mar 19).
- • Forecasts in May and June predicted record-breaking temperatures for the summer, with Las Vegas expected to hit 108°F in early June (KLAS 8 News Now, Jun 9; FOX Weather, May 11).
- • More than 100 daily high temperature records were expected through late March, indicating a pattern of extreme heat (CBS News, Mar 26).
The case for YES
- • The persistent heatwave pattern from March through June strongly suggests that July 25, a midsummer date, would also see very high temperatures.
- • Las Vegas in July routinely experiences highs above 105°F, making it likely that any reasonable threshold was met.
- • The 98% odds reflect market confidence that the actual temperature reading confirmed the condition.
The case for NO
- • A sudden, unforecasted cold front or unusual weather system could have temporarily lowered temperatures on July 25.
- • If the threshold is exceptionally high (e.g., 115°F or above), even a hot day might fall short, though this is unlikely given the odds.
- • No recent headlines indicate any cooling trend that would challenge the near-certain outcome.
What to watch
- • Official temperature reading for Las Vegas on July 25, 2026, once released, will resolve the market to 100% or 0% (direction: likely Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗