Atlanta Daily Temperature High — contract UHATL_072526_87
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Atlanta's high temperature on July 26, 2026, will reach at least 87°F, reflecting a strong seasonal norm and recent record-breaking heat trends, but the extreme 98% odds leave almost no room for a cooler outlier like a cloudy or rainy day.
📊 Base rate: In Atlanta, the average daily high on July 26 is around 89°F, and historical data shows that the high reaches 87°F or higher in roughly 70-80% of years, making the current 98% odds significantly higher than the base rate.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines show a pattern of record-breaking heat in early 2026, such as a 135-year-old record broken on February 19 (11Alive.com, Feb 19) and consecutive February heat records (11Alive.com, Feb 20), suggesting a warmer-than-usual year.
- • By late June, forecasts emphasized dry air and sunny skies (CBS News, Jun 3; FOX 5 Atlanta, Jun 28), which typically support high temperatures, reinforcing the expectation for a hot July day.
- • The market's 98% odds reflect that July 26 is deep in summer, when Atlanta's climatological normal high is near 89°F, making 87°F a relatively low threshold that is exceeded most years.
The case for YES
- • Atlanta's average high on July 26 is about 89°F, so 87°F is 2°F below normal, meaning even a slightly cooler-than-average day would still resolve Yes.
- • The summer of 2026 has been preceded by record-breaking warmth in February and March (11Alive.com, Feb 19; FOX 5 Atlanta, Mar 31), suggesting a persistent warm pattern that increases the likelihood of a hot July day.
- • Dry air and sunny skies were already forecast in early June (CBS News, Jun 3), and if that pattern holds into late July, it would easily push temperatures above 87°F.
The case for NO
- • A strong cold front or prolonged cloud cover from a tropical system could keep temperatures below 87°F, as summer thunderstorms can drop highs into the low 80s.
- • The 98% odds imply only a 2% chance of No, which may overprice the risk of an unusual weather event like a derecho or stationary front that suppresses temperatures.
- • While rare, Atlanta has seen July 26 highs below 87°F in some years (e.g., 2014 when the high was 82°F), so the historical base rate of about 20-30% for a miss is much higher than the market's implied 2%.
What to watch
- • July 20-25, 2026: Medium-range weather model runs (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) will provide a 5-7 day forecast for July 26; if they show a cold front or rain, No odds would rise, while a hot ridge would lock in Yes.
- • July 26, 2026, early morning: The official National Weather Service forecast high for Atlanta will be issued; if it is below 87°F, No odds could spike, but if it is 90°F+, Yes odds may approach 100%.
- • Late July 2026: Any tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf or Atlantic that tracks toward Georgia could bring clouds and rain, lowering the high temperature and boosting No odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance