Atlanta Daily Temperature High — contract UHATL_072526_87
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Atlanta's high temperature on July 26, 2026, will reach at least 87°F, reflecting a strong seasonal norm and recent record-breaking heat trends, but the 2% No side captures the slim chance of an unusually cool day.
📊 Base rate: For Atlanta in late July, the average daily high is around 89°F, and historical data shows that the high reaches 87°F or above on roughly 80-90% of days in that period, making the current 98% odds slightly elevated relative to the base rate.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines show a pattern of record-breaking heat in Atlanta, with February 2026 breaking a 135-year-old temperature record (11Alive.com, Feb 19) and continued warmth into January (AJC.com, Jan 7), suggesting a warming trend that supports high summer temperatures.
- • The June 2026 forecast of dry air and sunny skies (CBS News, Jun 3) indicates that summer conditions are already aligning with typical hot weather, reducing the chance of a cool anomaly on July 26.
- • No clear recent catalyst specifically for July 26 has been reported; the odds appear driven by seasonal expectations and the broader heat pattern rather than a specific forecast for that date.
The case for YES
- • Atlanta's average high in late July is about 89°F, well above the 87°F threshold, making a Yes outcome statistically likely based on climatology.
- • The region has experienced unseasonable warmth and record-breaking temperatures in early 2026 (11Alive.com, Feb 19-20; AJC.com, Jan 7), suggesting a persistent warm pattern that could carry into summer.
- • Forecasts for early June 2026 indicate dry air and sunny skies (CBS News, Jun 3), typical of conditions that lead to high temperatures in Atlanta.
The case for NO
- • A cold front or unusual weather pattern could temporarily drop temperatures below 87°F, as seen in the June 2026 forecast mentioning rain returning after dry days (CBS News, Jun 3), which could suppress highs.
- • The 2% odds imply a very low probability, but extreme outliers like a severe thunderstorm or prolonged cloud cover on July 26 could keep the high below 87°F.
- • Historical data shows that even in late July, about 10-20% of days fail to reach 87°F, so the No outcome is not impossible despite the current odds.
What to watch
- • A 7- to 10-day weather forecast for Atlanta around July 19-26, 2026, would significantly move the odds: a forecast of a cold front or rain would increase No probability, while a heatwave prediction would reinforce Yes.
- • Any announcement of a major heatwave or record-breaking temperatures in the Southeast in the weeks leading up to July 26 would push odds higher toward Yes.
- • If a tropical storm or hurricane threatens the region in late July, it could bring cloud cover and cooler temperatures, increasing the No probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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