Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is nearly certain that Jacksonville hits 96°F today, driven by a forecasted heatwave, but the chance of storms could cap the temperature.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 forecast warns of 'extreme heat' for Jacksonville this weekend, directly pushing the odds toward Yes (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Earlier March headlines show Jacksonville can hit record highs (e.g., 'flirt with record highs'), establishing a pattern of extreme heat events (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
- • The 98% odds reflect that the market is pricing in a very confident short-term forecast, not just historical averages.
The case for YES
- • The most recent forecast explicitly calls for 'extreme heat' on the weekend of July 26, making a high of 96°F or above very plausible (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Jacksonville has already experienced record-high temperatures this year, as seen in March 2026, showing the region can reach such thresholds (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • The 98% odds imply that weather models and local data strongly support the high reaching 96°F today.
The case for NO
- • The same July 24 headline mentions 'storms' alongside heat, which could bring clouds or rain and keep the high below 96°F (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • February 2026 headline shows Jacksonville's weather can swing drastically, with highs in the 80s one day and lows in the 30s the next, meaning forecast certainty is limited (FL Times-Union, Feb 19).
- • A 96°F threshold is above the normal July 26 high of around 90-92°F; even during a heatwave, the high might fall a degree or two short.
What to watch
- • Official high temperature reading from the Jacksonville weather station later today (Jul 26) – if below 96°F, the odds collapse; if at or above 96°F, they go to 100%.
- • Any midday update from the National Weather Service revising the forecast high downward would reduce the probability of Yes.
- • A report of actual storm activity or cloud cover before the daily high is recorded could also lower the odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance