Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty that Jacksonville hits 95°F on July 25, 2026, driven by a specific extreme-heat warning two days prior, but the lack of any other recent high-temp headlines and a history of wild temperature swings in the area leaves a small but non-trivial chance of a miss.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's July average high is about 92°F, and the city has historically reached 95°F or above on roughly 10-15% of July days, making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to the climatological prior.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 headline from the FL Times-Union explicitly warns of 'extreme heat' for Jacksonville this weekend, directly supporting the 95°F threshold (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • The market odds jumped to 98% after that specific heat warning, indicating the forecast is the primary mover.
- • No other recent headlines show any cooling trend or countervailing weather pattern for late July, reinforcing the bullish case.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat for the weekend, making a 95°F high highly plausible.
- • Jacksonville has already experienced record-high flirtations this spring (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), showing the region can reach such thresholds.
- • The contract date is in peak summer, when climatological odds of 95°F are highest.
The case for NO
- • Jacksonville's weather has shown drastic swings this year, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 30s within days (FL Times-Union, Feb 19), suggesting forecasts can be unreliable.
- • A March headline described a plunge from record highs to 'freezer' conditions (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27), indicating rapid pattern changes are possible.
- • The 2% odds imply a very small but real chance that a passing storm or cloud cover keeps the high below 95°F, as the same July 24 headline also warned of storms.
What to watch
- • July 25-26 actual temperature readings: if the high falls short of 95°F, odds will collapse to near 0%; if it hits or exceeds, they will lock at 100%.
- • Any updated National Weather Service forecast or advisory on July 25 that downgrades the heat intensity would push odds down.
- • A sudden thunderstorm or cold front arrival on the contract date, as hinted by the 'storms ahead' warning, would reduce the chance of hitting 95°F.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance