Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
A blistering heatwave is forecast for Jacksonville as July ends, making a high of 95°F extremely likely — the 'no' case rests on the slim chance a cold front or thunderstorms briefly suppress the peak before the daily reading is taken.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, the historical July average maximum is about 91°F, and a high of 95°F occurs roughly once every few summers, so a 98% chance is exceptionally high relative to the baseline climate odds.
What's driving it
- • The recent headline 'Extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend' (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) sets the immediate context for a dangerous heat event that pushes highs toward 95.
- • Earlier reports of 'Florida temps could flirt with record highs' (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9) and 'normal temps won’t last' (May 13) established a warm seasonal pattern that amplifies the late-July heatwave odds.
The case for YES
- • The Friday forecast explicitly warns of 'extreme heat' for the weekend, making a 95°F maximum plausible and consistent with the broader summer trend of above-normal temperatures.
- • The seasonal baseline — March saw record-high flirtations and May predicted a return to heat — suggests Jacksonville is already in a warmer-than-usual summer cycle, raising the likelihood of hitting 95 in late July.
The case for NO
- • The same headline mentions 'storms ahead,' and a strong thunderstorm or cold-front passage could cool the air before the daily max is recorded, capping the high below 95.
- • The 'frying pan into the freezer' swing (Mar 27) shows Jacksonville can experience rapid temperature reversals, and a surprise frontal boundary later in July might suppress the peak before readings lock in.
What to watch
- • The actual high temperature reading on the afternoon of 2026-07-26 will resolve the market — any last-minute cloud cover or rain could drop the max below 95 (move toward No).
- • Updated National Weather Service advisories on 2026-07-26 morning — if an excessive heat warning is issued, it would reinforce the Yes outcome; if a sudden cool trend is predicted, it could shift toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance