Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty that Jacksonville hit 96°F on July 25, driven by an extreme heat warning issued just before the weekend. The real story is whether the actual official reading confirms the forecast, as the odds leave little room for error despite typical microclimate variability.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 headline 'Extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend' (FL Times-Union) directly forecasts temperatures high enough to reach 96°F on the contract date.
- • Earlier heat waves in March and May (e.g., 'Florida temps could flirt with record highs' on Mar 9) set a pattern of above-normal temperatures, reinforcing the likelihood of a hot July day.
- • The 98% odds reflect strong confidence from forecasters and market participants that the heat wave materialized as predicted, with no recent contradictory signals.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warned of extreme heat, and the contract date (July 25) falls within that weekend window, making a high of 96°F or more the most likely outcome.
- • Jacksonville's historical July temperatures often exceed 96°F during heat waves, and the pattern of record highs earlier in 2026 (noted in Mar 27 and Mar 11 headlines) suggests a warm year trajectory.
- • No headlines after July 24 indicate a cooling trend or a miss on the forecast, so the market's near-unanimous view likely reflects real-time data such as preliminary readings.
The case for NO
- • The July 24 headline also mentions 'storms ahead,' which could bring cloud cover or rain that temporarily lowers the high temperature below 96°F despite the heat.
- • Microclimate effects or a malfunctioning sensor at the official reporting station could cause a discrepancy between forecast and actual recorded high.
- • The 2% No odds imply a small but non-zero chance of a cooler outlier, such as a sea breeze or a thunderstorm that prevents the temperature from reaching 96°F.
What to watch
- • Official release of the daily high temperature from the National Weather Service for Jacksonville on July 25 – if it matches or exceeds 96°F, the Yes side resolves; if below, No. (Likely direction: Yes given forecast.)
- • Any subsequent correction or retraction of the July 24 forecast or reports of a missed heat peak – would push odds toward No. (Direction: No.)
- • Publication of hourly temperature data from Jacksonville International Airport showing the exact high – if earlier than 96°F, No; if 96°F or higher, Yes. (Direction: Yes.)
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance