Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The 98% odds reflect a near-certainty that Jacksonville hit 95°F on July 25, driven by a July 24 forecast of extreme heat; the only risk is if storms cooled the area more than expected.
What's driving it
- • July 24 forecast of extreme heat and storms for Jacksonville weekend (FL Times-Union) pushed odds to near-certainty.
- • Historical temperature swings in Jacksonville (e.g., record highs in March, drastic swings in February) show the region can reach high temps, supporting the Yes case.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warned of extreme heat, making a high of 95°F very likely.
- • Jacksonville has experienced record-high temperatures earlier in 2026 (March 9-11), showing the region can exceed normal highs.
- • The market odds of 98% indicate strong consensus among traders that the temperature reached 95°F.
The case for NO
- • The same July 24 forecast also mentioned storms, which could bring cloud cover and rain, potentially capping the high temperature below 95°F.
- • The forecast might have been inaccurate; actual temperatures can deviate from predictions, especially with storm activity.
- • The base rate for Jacksonville reaching 95°F on July 25 is low (though not provided), so a 98% probability may be overconfident if the forecast was uncertain.
What to watch
- • Official high temperature report from Jacksonville International Airport (July 26) - likely confirms Yes if 95°F was reached.
- • Any correction or delay in temperature reporting could cause volatility, but direction is toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance