Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of exactly 78°F on July 25, reflecting the inherent rarity of a precise integer temperature despite recent heat waves that might have shifted the distribution upward.
What's driving it
- • Recent record-breaking heat in March 2026 (The Guardian, Mar 19) and persistent ocean warming off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer baseline, reducing the chance of a mild reading like 78°F.
- • The low probability of hitting an exact integer temperature in a continuous distribution anchors the 97% No odds, with no clear short-term catalyst for a change.
The case for YES
- • If a cooling trend or marine layer pushes the high down near 78°F, the exact integer becomes more plausible.
- • The extreme March heatwave (USA Today, Mar 17) demonstrates that atypical temperature patterns can occur, though this would more likely increase variance than the chance of exactly 78.
The case for NO
- • The historical average high for LA in late July is about 84°F, making 78°F below average and thus less likely as an exact reading.
- • Record-breaking heat earlier in 2026 (FOX Weather, Mar 22) indicates a warming trend, shifting the temperature distribution upward away from 78.
- • Precise temperature targets are inherently low-probability events; reliable forecasts rarely predict exact integers.
What to watch
- • Weather model updates for July 25 around July 22–24 could move odds significantly toward Yes if they consistently forecast a high near 78°F.
- • Any heatwave advisories or cool marine layer predictions in the days before July 25 would shift odds in opposite directions.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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Yes ≈ 26% chance