Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty of a 95°F+ high in Jacksonville on July 25, 2026, driven by a recent extreme-heat warning, but the historical volatility of Jacksonville's spring and summer temperatures — including record swings and a prior 'freeze' after record highs — suggests the 98% odds may overestimate the probability of hitting that specific threshold.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, the average daily high in late July is around 91°F, and temperatures reach 95°F or above on roughly 10-15% of days in a typical summer, based on historical climate data.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warns of 'extreme heat' for Jacksonville this weekend, directly supporting the high odds (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Earlier in the year, March saw record high temperatures followed by a dramatic drop into a 'freezer,' showing how quickly conditions can reverse (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • February and March headlines documented large temperature swings — highs in the 80s then lows in the 30s — indicating that Jacksonville's weather is not consistently stable (FL Times-Union, Feb 19; Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
- • A May headline noted 'normal' temps that 'won't last,' suggesting that seasonal patterns can shift unpredictably (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13).
The case for YES
- • The most recent forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat for the weekend of July 25-26, making a 95°F+ high plausible (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Jacksonville has already experienced record-high temperatures in March, showing the region can exceed typical summer thresholds earlier in the year (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • The market's 98% odds reflect a strong consensus that the specific contract threshold will be met, likely based on short-term model outputs.
The case for NO
- • Jacksonville's weather is highly variable, with dramatic swings from record highs to much cooler conditions within days, as seen in March (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • The 95°F threshold is well above the average July high of ~91°F, and even with a heat wave, reaching exactly that mark is not guaranteed — a small miss is possible.
- • Earlier forecasts of 'normal' temps in May that 'won't last' highlight that seasonal expectations can be disrupted, and the extreme heat warning could be slightly overstated or localized (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13).
What to watch
- • The actual temperature reading on July 25, 2026, will directly resolve the market; if it falls short, odds will collapse to 0%.
- • Any updated National Weather Service forecast or advisory issued on July 25-26 that downgrades the heat intensity could shift odds downward.
- • A last-minute change in weather patterns, such as a cold front or thunderstorm activity, could reduce the high temperature and move odds toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance