Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Jacksonville's high temperature on July 26, 2026, will reach at least 95°F, driven by a specific extreme-heat forecast just two days before the date, but the historical volatility of Jacksonville's spring weather — including a 50°F swing in February and a record-high-to-freeze drop in March — suggests the odds may overestimate the reliability of a single weekend forecast.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, the average daily high on July 26 is around 91°F, and the probability of reaching 95°F or higher on any given July day is roughly 15-20% based on 30-year climate normals, making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to the historical base rate.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline from the FL Times-Union explicitly warns of 'extreme heat' for Jacksonville this weekend, directly covering the contract date and providing the primary catalyst for the 98% odds (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • The market appears to heavily weight this short-term forecast over longer-term climate patterns, as no other recent headline supports such a high probability.
- • The absence of any contradictory forecast or cooling trend in recent days leaves the extreme-heat warning as the dominant narrative.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast from the local newspaper explicitly warns of 'extreme heat' for the weekend, which includes July 26, making a 95°F+ high the most likely outcome based on the most current data.
- • Jacksonville's summer climate typically peaks in late July, so a 95°F reading is within the climatologically plausible range even without a heatwave.
- • The market's near-unanimous consensus (98%) reflects that forecasters and traders see no competing cool-down signal in the short-term models.
The case for NO
- • The historical base rate for a 95°F+ high on July 26 in Jacksonville is only about 15-20%, meaning the current odds are far above what past data would suggest, and a single forecast can be wrong.
- • Jacksonville's weather has shown extreme volatility this year, including a 50°F swing in February (highs in 80s, lows in 30s) and a record-high-to-freeze drop in March, indicating that forecasts days ahead can miss sharp changes (FL Times-Union, Feb 19; Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • The May 13 headline noted 'normal' temps returning after a warm spell, suggesting that even seasonal forecasts can shift quickly, and a cooler airmass could still arrive (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13).
What to watch
- • The official National Weather Service forecast for July 26, typically issued 24-48 hours in advance, could either confirm or downgrade the extreme-heat warning; a downgrade would push odds down sharply.
- • Any new headline between now and July 26 mentioning a cold front, thunderstorms, or cloud cover for Jacksonville would reduce the probability of reaching 95°F.
- • The actual temperature reading at Jacksonville International Airport on July 26 will resolve the market; if the high is 94°F or lower, the 98% odds will prove overconfident.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance