Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
The market heavily favors a No resolution because the contract requires a daily high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, a narrow target that is historically rare in midsummer, and recent extreme heat events suggest above-normal temperatures are more likely.
📊 Base rate: In Los Angeles, the average daily high on July 26 is around 84°F, and the probability of hitting exactly 78°F is very low (typically below 5%) based on historical climate data.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines about record-breaking heat waves in the region (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17) indicate a trend toward higher temperatures, reducing the chance of a cool 78°F day.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which can amplify coastal temperatures and push daily highs above normal.
- • No clear catalyst has moved the odds recently; the 4% Yes price likely reflects the historical rarity of exactly 78°F in late July rather than any new event.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or persistent low clouds could keep coastal Los Angeles unusually cool, making 78°F a plausible high.
- • If a cold front or trough moves through Southern California on July 26, it could suppress temperatures below the seasonal average.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) shows increased monitoring but does not directly affect weather; however, it highlights that heat-related illness tracking may correlate with cooler days if public health measures reduce heat exposure.
The case for NO
- • The historical average high for late July in Los Angeles is around 84°F, making 78°F a below-normal temperature that is statistically unlikely.
- • The region has experienced extreme heat events shattering records (FOX Weather, Mar 22), suggesting a warming trend that makes a cool day less probable.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) tend to raise coastal temperatures, reducing the chance of a day as cool as 78°F.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026 weather forecasts from the National Weather Service: if a strong marine layer or trough is predicted, Yes odds could rise; if above-normal temperatures are forecast, No odds would strengthen.
- • Any new heat wave warnings or advisories issued for Southern California in the week before July 26 would push odds further toward No.
- • Release of the July 2026 ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) outlook: a La Niña pattern could favor cooler coastal conditions, slightly increasing Yes probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance