Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The 98% odds for Jacksonville hitting 95°F on July 26 reflect a short-term extreme heat event forecast just two days prior, but the market ignores the region's highly variable spring and early-summer temperatures, which have swung from record highs to near-freezing lows within weeks.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's average daily high on July 26 is about 91°F, and historically the city reaches 95°F or higher on roughly 10-15% of July days, making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to the long-term climatological prior.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warns of 'extreme heat' for Jacksonville this weekend, directly setting expectations for the July 26 contract (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • No other recent headlines support a 95°F outcome; the most recent prior coverage from May and March shows normal-to-cooler conditions and dramatic temperature swings, not sustained heat.
- • The odds jumped to 98% likely due to the specific short-range forecast, but the market lacks confirmation from longer-term weather patterns or historical consistency.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat for the weekend, which includes July 26, making a 95°F high plausible.
- • Jacksonville has seen record-high flirtations in March (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), showing the region can spike well above normal even in spring.
- • The 98% odds reflect concentrated market belief in the immediate forecast, which is often accurate 2 days out for temperature extremes.
The case for NO
- • Jacksonville's weather has been highly volatile, with a March plunge from record highs to near-freezing (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27) and February swings from 80s to 30s (FL Times-Union, Feb 19), suggesting a cool-down could occur.
- • The May forecast noted 'normal' temps and said the heat 'won't last' (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13), indicating no persistent warming trend heading into summer.
- • A 95°F reading is an extreme outlier for Jacksonville's July climate, and short-range forecasts can overestimate peak temperatures by a few degrees.
What to watch
- • July 26 morning forecast update from the National Weather Service: if the predicted high drops below 95°F, odds would fall sharply toward No.
- • July 26 actual temperature reports by midday: if readings are already below 90°F by early afternoon, the chance of reaching 95°F diminishes, pushing odds toward No.
- • Any late-July cold front or thunderstorm activity forecast for July 26 (not mentioned in headlines but common in Florida summers) could cap temperatures, moving odds toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance