Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Jacksonville hits 95°F on July 26, 2026, driven by a recent extreme-heat warning, but the historical volatility of Florida spring temperatures — including a 50°F swing in February and a March 'freezer' event — suggests the 98% odds may overestimate a single-day high.
📊 Base rate: Based on NOAA data for Jacksonville, the probability of reaching 95°F on any given July day is roughly 15-20%, making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to the historical norm.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warns of extreme heat and storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend, directly reinforcing the Yes case (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • No clear catalyst explains the 98% level; the most recent specific forecast is from July 24, but the market's extreme confidence may reflect broader seasonal expectations rather than a single trigger.
- • Earlier headlines show dramatic temperature swings — a February swing from 80s to 30s and a March plunge from record highs to 'freezer' — which are not reflected in the current odds (FL Times-Union, Feb 19; Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat this weekend, directly aligning with the contract date of July 26.
- • Florida has already flirted with record highs in March 2026, showing the region can reach extreme temperatures earlier than typical summer peaks (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
- • The 98% odds imply that forecast models or local meteorologists are highly confident in a 95°F reading, though the provided headlines do not specify a precise temperature prediction.
The case for NO
- • Jacksonville's weather has shown extreme volatility in 2026, including a 50°F swing in February and a March 'freezer' event after record highs, making a single-day high less predictable than the odds suggest (FL Times-Union, Feb 19; Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • The July 24 headline also mentions storms ahead, which could bring cloud cover or rain that suppresses the afternoon high temperature.
- • The 2% No odds are extremely low, but historical base rates for 95°F in July are far lower than 98%, suggesting a potential overreaction to the weekend heat warning.
What to watch
- • July 26, 2026 — The actual temperature reading for Jacksonville will resolve the market; any last-minute forecast updates (e.g., a shift to cooler air or storms) could move odds toward No.
- • July 25, 2026 — A detailed local forecast from the National Weather Service or FL Times-Union specifying the expected high could sharply move odds toward Yes if it confirms 95°F, or toward No if it predicts lower.
- • No other dated events are provided in the headlines; the next scheduled forecast update is unknown.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance