Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Jacksonville's high on July 26, 2026, will reach 96°F, driven by a recent extreme-heat warning and a pattern of volatile temperature swings this year, but the 2% No side reflects the possibility that a cold front or storm could cap the high just below that threshold.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, July daily high temperatures historically average around 91°F, with 96°F occurring roughly 5-10% of days in the month, making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to the base rate.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warns of 'extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend' (FL Times-Union, Jul 24), directly supporting the 96°F threshold.
- • Earlier in the year, March saw record high temperatures followed by a 'frying pan into the freezer' plunge (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27), showing the region's volatility, which may be tempering the No side.
- • A February headline noted drastic swings from 80s highs to 30s lows (FL Times-Union, Feb 19), reinforcing that unusual extremes are possible in either direction.
The case for YES
- • The most recent forecast explicitly calls for extreme heat in Jacksonville this weekend, making 96°F a plausible target (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Florida has already flirted with record highs in March (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), suggesting the region can sustain above-normal temperatures into summer.
- • The market's 98% odds reflect strong consensus among forecasters and traders that the heat wave will push the mercury to at least 96°F.
The case for NO
- • The same July 24 headline mentions 'storms ahead' (FL Times-Union, Jul 24), which could bring cloud cover or rain that caps the high temperature below 96°F.
- • Jacksonville's weather has shown extreme swings this year, including a March 'freezer' drop after record highs (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27), meaning a cold front could arrive unexpectedly.
- • The historical base rate for 96°F in July is low (roughly 5-10% of days), so the 98% odds may be overpriced if the heat wave weakens slightly.
What to watch
- • The July 26 morning forecast update from the National Weather Service will be the final catalyst; if it lowers the predicted high, the No side could spike.
- • Any reports of a cold front or thunderstorm development on July 26 itself would push odds toward No.
- • If the actual high is reported at 95°F or lower by late afternoon, the market will resolve No, but this is a resolution event, not a pre-catalyst.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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