Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty of a 95°F+ high in Jacksonville on July 25, 2026, driven by a specific extreme-heat warning just two days prior, but the historical volatility of Jacksonville's weather — including a 50°F swing in February and a March 'freezer' event — suggests the 98% odds may overstate the probability of hitting that exact threshold.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's daily high in late July historically exceeds 95°F only about 15-20% of days based on 30-year climate normals, making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to the base rate.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 headline warning of 'extreme heat' for Jacksonville this weekend (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) is the primary catalyst for the 98% odds, as it directly forecasts conditions for the contract date.
- • The March 9 report of Florida temps 'flirting with record highs' (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9) shows the region can produce extreme heat, supporting the bullish case.
- • The March 27 headline of a 'frying pan into the freezer' swing (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27) and the February 19 report of 'drastic swings' (FL Times-Union, Feb 19) highlight Jacksonville's weather volatility, which could undermine a single-day forecast.
- • No clear catalyst explains the jump from the May 13 'normal temps' report (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13) to the current 98% odds, suggesting the market is reacting almost entirely to the July 24 warning.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast of 'extreme heat' for the weekend (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) directly predicts conditions that would push the high to 95°F or above on the contract date of July 25.
- • The March 9 report of Florida temps 'flirting with record highs' (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9) demonstrates that the region can sustain the necessary heat levels in the same calendar period.
- • The March 11 forecast for The Players Championship (FL Times-Union, Mar 11) indicates that local weather models have accurately predicted heat events earlier in the year, lending credibility to the July 24 warning.
The case for NO
- • The March 27 headline of a 'frying pan into the freezer' swing (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27) shows that a single forecast can be dramatically wrong within days, making the 98% odds vulnerable to a last-minute cold front.
- • The February 19 report of 'drastic swings' from 80s to 30s (FL Times-Union, Feb 19) illustrates that Jacksonville's weather is highly variable, and a 95°F threshold is a narrow target that can be missed by a few degrees even in a heatwave.
- • The May 13 report of 'normal temps' (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13) suggests that extreme heat is not a persistent pattern, and the July 24 warning may be an outlier rather than a trend.
What to watch
- • July 25 morning forecast update from the National Weather Service: a downgrade to a high below 95°F would sharply drop Yes odds; an upgrade or confirmation would lock in the current high odds.
- • July 26 actual temperature reading at Jacksonville airport: if the high is below 95°F, the contract resolves No at 100%; if at or above 95°F, it resolves Yes at 100%.
- • Any midweek cold front or thunderstorm outlook for July 25-26 (e.g., from FL Times-Union or local news) could shift odds if it suggests cloud cover or rain limiting the high temperature.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance