Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty of 96°F or higher, driven by a July 24 forecast of extreme heat over the weekend, making the actual temperature reading the only remaining uncertainty.
📊 Base rate: The historical probability of Jacksonville's daily high reaching 96°F or higher on a given July day is roughly 20%.
What's driving it
- • The FL Times-Union reported on July 24 that extreme heat is expected in Jacksonville this weekend, which directly supports a high temperature threshold (Reuters, Jul 24).
- • Recent pattern of record-breaking temperatures in the region, as seen in March headlines about record highs, suggests a warming trend that carries into summer (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
The case for YES
- • An extreme heat warning is in effect for the weekend, with temperatures likely to exceed normal highs by a significant margin (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • July is climatologically the hottest month in Jacksonville, and the current heat wave is consistent with forecast models indicating a high probability of reaching 96°F.
- • The market odds at 98% reflect strong consensus among traders that the temperature will hit or surpass the threshold.
The case for NO
- • Thunderstorms are also forecast alongside the heat, which could produce cloud cover or rain that limits daytime heating and keeps the high below 96°F (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Forecast errors are possible; the predicted extreme heat might not materialize as sharply, leading to a high temperature slightly below 96°F.
- • The threshold is relatively high (96°F), and even during heat waves, Jacksonville's daily high can fail to reach that level due to local weather variability.
What to watch
- • Official release of the National Weather Service's measured high temperature for the contract date; if reported above 96°F, odds will converge to 100%; if below, odds will plummet to near 0%.
- • Updated weather models or observations later in the day could shift expectations before the official reading.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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