Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The 98% odds for Jacksonville hitting 95°F on July 26 reflect a short-term extreme heat event forecast just days ahead, not a long-term climate trend, making the market heavily driven by immediate weather models rather than historical patterns.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Jacksonville shows that daily high temperatures reach or exceed 95°F on roughly 2-3 days per year on average, typically in July and August, giving a baseline probability well below 50% for any single date.
What's driving it
- • A specific weekend forecast of extreme heat and storms for Jacksonville, published July 24, directly supports the high odds just two days before the contract date (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • The odds have likely surged from a lower base due to this short-range forecast, as earlier headlines from March and May showed normal or fluctuating temperatures, not sustained heat (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13; Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • No clear catalyst for the current 98% level beyond the July 24 forecast; earlier heat warnings in March and February were not tied to this specific date (FL Times-Union, Mar 11; Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat for Jacksonville this weekend, directly covering the contract date of July 26 (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Florida has experienced record-high temperature flirtations earlier in 2026, showing the region can reach such thresholds under the right conditions (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
The case for NO
- • Weather forecasts days ahead can shift; the July 24 headline also mentions storms, which could bring cloud cover or rain that caps the high temperature below 95°F (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Jacksonville's weather has shown dramatic swings this year, with highs in the 80s followed by lows in the 30s, indicating variability that could prevent a 95°F reading even during a heat event (FL Times-Union, Feb 19).
What to watch
- • July 26 morning observations: actual temperature readings by midday will either confirm or refute the forecast, likely moving odds sharply toward 0% or 100% by afternoon.
- • July 25 evening model updates: any revision to the high-temperature forecast for July 26 could shift odds down if the predicted high drops below 95°F.
- • July 26 noon local reports: real-time weather station data from Jacksonville will provide the strongest signal, potentially collapsing the market to near-certainty.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance