Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty that Jacksonville hits 96°F on July 25, driven by a July 24 forecast of extreme heat, but the 2% No side reflects the small chance that storms or cloud cover cap the high just below that threshold.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 FL Times-Union headline warns of 'extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend,' directly supporting the Yes outcome (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Earlier headlines from March and February show dramatic temperature swings in Jacksonville, but the immediate forecast overrides that historical variability.
- • The 98% odds reflect that the forecast is for a specific high temperature (96°F) that is within the range of the predicted extreme heat event.
The case for YES
- • The most recent forecast explicitly calls for extreme heat in Jacksonville this weekend, making 96°F a plausible high (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • The market's 98% probability indicates that traders see the forecast as highly reliable for this specific threshold.
- • Jacksonville has reached similar highs in March 2026 (record highs mentioned in March 27 headline), showing the city can hit 96°F even outside peak summer.
The case for NO
- • The same July 24 headline mentions storms, which could bring cloud cover or rain that lowers the actual high temperature below 96°F.
- • Forecasts several days out can be off by a few degrees, and a 2% chance accounts for a cooler-than-expected outcome.
- • Earlier in 2026, Jacksonville experienced drastic swings (e.g., from record highs to 'freezer' in March), showing that weather can deviate sharply from predictions.
What to watch
- • The actual temperature reading on July 25 will resolve the market; any last-minute forecast update showing a cooler trend could drop the Yes odds slightly.
- • If a severe thunderstorm watch is issued for July 25, it might increase the No probability as storms can suppress daytime highs.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance