Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty at 98% because the latest forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat this weekend, making a 96°F high highly likely barring unexpected storms.
📊 Base rate: The historical average high in Jacksonville for July 26 is around 92°F, so a 96°F target is above average but not uncommon during heat waves.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat this weekend (FL Times-Union, Jul 24), directly supporting a high of 96°F.
- • Earlier March reports of Florida flirting with record highs (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9) show the region can reach such temperatures, though not current.
- • The contract is for a specific date during peak summer, when Jacksonville's climatology supports higher temperatures.
The case for YES
- • Latest forecast calls for extreme heat on the weekend, making 96°F plausible.
- • Jacksonville has recently approached record highs (March 9 headline), indicating the area can hit the threshold.
- • No cold front or significant cooling is forecast, so the heat wave should persist.
The case for NO
- • Thunderstorms could develop and cool temperatures before the daily high is recorded.
- • The contract may specify an exact 96°F, not 'at least', so a slight deviation is possible.
- • Forecast errors occasionally occur, and actual highs can fall short of predictions.
What to watch
- • Updated National Weather Service forecast on July 26 morning could either confirm or downgrade intensity (direction: lower if downgraded).
- • Actual temperature readings throughout the day will resolve the market; if early readings show lower temps, probability drops.
- • Any unexpected weather system, like a thunderstorm outbreak, could reduce chances (direction: lower).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance