Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The 98% odds for Jacksonville hitting 95°F on July 26 reflect a short-term extreme heat event forecast just two days prior, not a long-term trend, as the region has seen wild temperature swings from record highs to freezes in recent months.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's historical July average high is around 91°F, and daily records for July 26 are near 100°F, so 95°F is above average but not unprecedented, making the 98% odds very high relative to climatological probability.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 headline warning of 'extreme heat' for Jacksonville this weekend (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) is the primary catalyst pushing odds to 98%, as it directly forecasts the contract date.
- • No other recent headline supports a 95°F reading; earlier March and May reports show normal or even record-cold swings (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27; Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13), indicating the current odds rely entirely on the short-term heat wave forecast.
- • The odds jumped from a lower baseline (not shown but implied by the 98% level) after the July 24 forecast, as no other news in the past four months suggests sustained extreme heat.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat for Jacksonville this weekend, directly covering the contract date of July 26 (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Florida has flirted with record highs in recent months, as seen in March (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), showing the region can reach such temperatures under the right conditions.
- • The forecast is only two days out, giving it high short-term accuracy for a daily temperature high.
The case for NO
- • Jacksonville's weather has swung drastically, with record highs plummeting to near-freezing in late March (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27), showing the area is prone to sudden reversals that could undercut the heat forecast.
- • The May forecast noted 'normal' temps that 'won't last' (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13), implying a return to average rather than extreme heat, and no sustained heat wave has been reported since.
- • A 2-day forecast for a specific temperature threshold (95°F) can still miss by a few degrees due to cloud cover or sea breezes, which are common in Jacksonville in July.
What to watch
- • July 26 morning update from the National Weather Service: if the forecast high is revised downward below 95°F, odds would drop sharply toward No.
- • July 26 actual temperature reports by midday: if readings are already below 90°F by early afternoon, odds for hitting 95°F would fall; if above 93°F, odds would stay near 100%.
- • Any new headline on July 26 about a cold front or thunderstorm cooling the area would push odds toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance