Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Jacksonville's July 25 high temperature hit 96°F, driven by a July 24 forecast of extreme heat; the real story is whether the actual official reading will confirm the forecast or if a slight deviation could give a rare No outcome.
📊 Base rate: Historical climate data for Jacksonville shows that the daily high temperature reaches or exceeds 96°F on roughly 10-15% of July days, making the 98% odds extremely high relative to the base rate.
What's driving it
- • July 24 forecast from FL Times-Union calling for extreme heat and storms over the weekend (Jul 24)
- • Market odds at 98% indicate near-total confidence in the forecast, with no contrary weather signals in recent headlines
The case for YES
- • The forecast explicitly warned of extreme heat, making a 96°F high plausible
- • Jacksonville often reaches 95-100°F in late July, and the forecast aligns with typical summer patterns
- • No recent headlines suggest a cooler trend; the only relevant weather news is the heat warning
The case for NO
- • Forecasts can be off by a few degrees; a high of 95°F would still be hot but trigger the No outcome
- • Storms predicted for the weekend could bring cloud cover or rain, which might cap the temperature below the 96°F threshold
- • The market's 98% odds may be overconfident given that historical base rates for 96°F are lower
What to watch
- • Official NOAA temperature reading for July 25, likely released on July 26 (Jul 26) — if it confirms 96°F+, odds will go to 100%; if below, a sharp drop to near 0%
- • Any late-breaking weather reports or observations from local weather stations on July 25 that suggest a lower high (Jul 25) — would push odds down
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance