Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
The market heavily favors a No resolution because the contract requires a daily high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, a precise target that is historically rare; recent extreme heat events and record-breaking temperatures across the region make a cooler, exact reading even less likely.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles shows that the daily high temperature on July 26 typically ranges from the mid-70s to mid-80s, with the exact value of 78°F occurring on only a small fraction of days, likely under 5-10% of years.
What's driving it
- • The historic March 2026 heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), indicating a trend toward higher temperatures that reduces the chance of a moderate 78°F reading.
- • Record-breaking ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest persistent warmth that could keep LA's daily highs elevated through summer.
- • LA County's new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) reflects official concern about high-temperature impacts, reinforcing the expectation of above-normal heat.
- • The March heatwave was described as 'unprecedented' and 'dangerous' (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17; NYT, Mar 16), setting a pattern of extreme highs that makes a precise 78°F target less probable.
The case for YES
- • If a late-July marine layer or coastal fog moves in, it could cap temperatures near 78°F, as such conditions often moderate LA's summer highs.
- • The contract's exact target of 78°F is within the typical summer range, so a day with average conditions—not extreme heat—could hit that mark.
- • A cooling trend after the historic March heatwave could bring temperatures back to normal levels, increasing the chance of a 78°F high.
The case for NO
- • The historic March heatwave and record ocean temperatures (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) point to a warmer-than-average summer, making a moderate 78°F high less likely.
- • Over 1,500 records were shattered in the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), indicating a persistent pattern of extreme heat that would push LA's daily high above 78°F.
- • The 'dangerous' and 'unprecedented' nature of the March heatwave (NYT, Mar 16) suggests that 2026 is an outlier year for heat, reducing the probability of a typical 78°F reading.
What to watch
- • July 2026 medium-range weather forecasts (e.g., from NOAA) two weeks before July 26: if they predict a heatwave or above-normal temperatures, odds for No would increase; if they predict cooler marine-layer influence, odds for Yes would rise.
- • Any official heat advisory or excessive heat warning issued by the National Weather Service for Los Angeles County in late July 2026 would strongly push odds toward No.
- • A sudden shift in Pacific sea surface temperatures (e.g., El Niño/La Niña updates) in June or July 2026 could alter the expected temperature pattern, with warmer waters favoring No and cooler waters favoring Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance