Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
The market strongly expects Los Angeles will not hit 78°F on July 26, 2026 despite a historic March heat wave and new public heat-tracking tools, reflecting that a normal midsummer high in LA is significantly warmer than 78°F.
📊 Base rate: Los Angeles average daily high in late July is about 84°F (based on NOAA 1991-2020 normals), meaning 78°F is roughly 6°F below the climatological normal, making a sub-78°F day historically unusual but still possible.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heat wave shattered records across the Southwest (The Guardian, Mar 19), raising awareness of extreme heat but not changing the July norm.
- • Record-breaking ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could locally suppress coastal land temps but the magnitude vs. 78°F is unclear.
- • No clear recent catalyst for the 5% Yes price; the odds appear to reflect climatological baseline rather than a specific forecast shift.
The case for YES
- • Persistent marine layer or June Gloom pattern could keep highs suppressed well below normal into late July, driving a sub-78°F day.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) may improve awareness of heat-health risks but does not alter weather; no direct link to hitting 78°F.
The case for NO
- • LA's average July 26 high is about 84°F, so 78°F is 6°F below normal — a cool outlier that occurs only on rare days with strong marine influence or storm systems.
- • Even in the record-breaking March 2026 heat wave (USA Today, Mar 17), the focus was on extreme highs well above 78°F; such a cool threshold is not threatened by heat events.
What to watch
- • July 2026 official NWS forecast updates in early July: if a below-normal temperature outlook emerges, Yes odds may rise slightly.
- • Arrival of a strong El Niño/La Niña shift by June 2026: El Niño tends to warm coastal SoCal, pushing No; La Niña may cool slightly but impact on 78°F is small.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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