Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The 98% odds for Jacksonville hitting 96°F on July 26 reflect a short-term extreme heat event forecast just two days prior, not a long-term trend, as the region has seen wild temperature swings from record highs to freezes in recent months.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, July 26 historically has about a 10-15% chance of reaching 96°F based on 30-year climate normals, making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warns of 'extreme heat' ahead for Jacksonville this weekend, directly boosting the Yes odds two days before the contract date (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • No other recent headlines support sustained heat; the most recent prior forecast from May 13 noted 'normal' temps, and earlier reports showed drastic swings from record highs to freezes (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13; Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat for the weekend, which includes July 26, making a 96°F high plausible.
- • Jacksonville has flirted with record highs in March and February, showing the region can reach such temperatures even outside peak summer (FL Times-Union, Mar 11; Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
- • The contract is for a single day, and short-term heat waves can push temperatures well above normal for a brief period.
The case for NO
- • The historical base rate for 96°F on July 26 is very low (around 10-15%), and the 98% odds imply near-certainty that is unsupported by long-term data.
- • Recent weather patterns in Jacksonville have been highly volatile, with a March 27 report of a 'frying pan into the freezer' swing, suggesting that forecasts can change rapidly (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • The May 13 forecast of 'normal' temps indicates that extreme heat is not a persistent pattern, and the July 24 headline may overstate a short-lived event.
What to watch
- • July 26 morning weather updates from the National Weather Service or local news could confirm or revise the high forecast, moving odds sharply toward Yes if 96°F is still predicted, or toward No if downgraded.
- • Any observed temperature readings on July 25 or early July 26 approaching 96°F would increase Yes odds, while cooler-than-expected readings would push No odds up.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance