Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_77
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that LAX will hit 77°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting a broader trend of record-breaking heat in the region rather than a specific forecast for that date.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles shows that the average daily high on July 26 is around 84°F, making a high of 77°F well below the climatological normal, so the 98% odds are consistent with a routine summer day.
What's driving it
- • The historic March 2026 heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), establishing a pattern of extreme heat that likely persists into summer.
- • The ocean off California has been breaking heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which can amplify coastal temperatures and reduce the chance of a cooler day.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) signals heightened awareness and monitoring of high temperatures, reinforcing expectations of a hot summer.
The case for YES
- • July 26 is deep in summer, when LAX’s daily high almost always exceeds 77°F—the historical average high for that date is about 84°F, making 77°F a low bar.
- • The region has experienced persistent extreme heat since March 2026, including a record-breaking March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19), suggesting a warm summer pattern.
- • No specific forecast or event suggests a cool-down; the odds reflect a routine summer outcome.
The case for NO
- • A marine layer or coastal fog could keep LAX below 77°F even on a hot day, as the airport is near the ocean and can be cooler than inland areas.
- • The 2% odds imply a rare but possible event, such as an unusual trough or storm system that would suppress temperatures.
- • No clear catalyst for a cool day is present in recent headlines, making this a low-probability but not impossible scenario.
What to watch
- • July 2026 monthly outlook from NOAA (expected early July): if it forecasts a cooler-than-normal July for coastal Southern California, odds for Yes could drop slightly.
- • Any heatwave or record-breaking temperature event in the week before July 26 (e.g., a major heat advisory) would reinforce the 98% odds.
- • A sudden shift to a strong marine layer or coastal low-pressure system around July 24-26 would increase the No probability, but no such event is currently indicated.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance