Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_79
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 22% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 22% right now.
The market heavily favors No (78%) for LA hitting 79°F on July 26, 2026, despite a historic March heat wave and record ocean temperatures, suggesting traders see the summer peak as still uncertain and the specific date as a high bar.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles shows that daily high temperatures reach 79°F or above on roughly 60-70% of days in late July, based on long-term averages, making the current 22% Yes odds notably low relative to the climatological prior.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heat wave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), raising concerns about extreme summer heat but not directly tied to a single July date.
- • Record-breaking ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest persistent marine heat that could moderate coastal temperatures, potentially reducing the likelihood of a 79°F high.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates heightened institutional focus on heat risks, but no clear catalyst has moved odds significantly since March.
The case for YES
- • The historic March heat wave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and record ocean heat (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) indicate a warming trend that could carry into late July, making 79°F more likely.
- • If the same atmospheric patterns that drove the March records persist, a late-July high of 79°F is well within the range of recent summer extremes.
The case for NO
- • The 78% No odds reflect that 79°F is a relatively high threshold for coastal LA, where marine layer and ocean breezes often cap summer highs in the mid-70s.
- • Record ocean heat (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) may actually suppress land temperatures by enhancing sea breeze and cloud cover, reducing the chance of hitting 79°F.
What to watch
- • July 2026 monthly outlook from NOAA (expected early July): if it forecasts above-normal temperatures for Southern California, Yes odds would likely rise.
- • Any heat wave or Santa Ana wind event in the week before July 26: would increase Yes probability, as it could push temperatures above 79°F.
- • Release of the June 2026 temperature anomaly data for LA: if June was cooler than average, No odds would strengthen.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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Yes ≈ 26% chance