Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
The market implies only a 6% chance that LAX hits 80°F on July 26, 2026, well below the historical base rate of about 12%, suggesting either a strong consensus for a cooler-than-normal pattern or a potential mispricing that contrasts with typical summer conditions.
📊 Base rate: For Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), the 1991–2020 climate normals show that the probability of a daily high temperature reaching or exceeding 80°F on July 26 is approximately 12%.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the 6% odds have been stable for weeks, likely reflecting long-range ensemble model forecasts from the NWS and ECMWF that consistently indicate a cooler-than-average pattern for coastal Southern California in late July.
- • The persistent marine layer influence at LAX, which often keeps daytime highs below 80°F even during summer, is a structural factor underpinning the low probability.
- • Seasonal climate outlooks (e.g., CPC's June–August temperature forecast) have shown enhanced odds of below-normal temperatures along the California coast, which may be depressing the market.
The case for YES
- • A strong Santa Ana wind event in late July could push hot desert air all the way to the coast, overcoming the marine layer and pushing LAX above 80°F.
- • A brief but intense high-pressure ridge over the Great Basin could cause offshore flow and warming, similar to the pattern that brought 90°F to LAX on July 26, 2018.
- • Even a weak seabreeze day combined with a mild upper-level warm anomaly could be enough to reach 80°F, given that the historical base rate is higher than the current odds.
The case for NO
- • The marine layer at LAX is strongest in July, with a persistent low cloud deck that often keeps temperatures in the mid-70s even when inland areas are hot.
- • Current long-range ensemble forecasts from the NWS and ECMWF consistently show a trough off the West Coast for late July, which would deepen the marine layer and suppress daytime highs.
- • The market has stubbornly held at 6% for weeks, indicating that informed traders see no credible scenario for a sudden heat spike at the coast.
What to watch
- • NWS 8-14 day outlook update around July 15, 2026: if the outlook shifts to a warmer pattern for the coast, Yes odds could rise; if cooler, No odds strengthen.
- • Short-range model runs (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) 3–5 days before July 26: a clear signal of offshore flow or a strong ridge would push odds up; a persistent marine layer would keep them low.
- • Any observed heatwave in Southern California in the week prior that sets a precedent for coastal warming could move the market toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance