Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_79
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 22% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 22% right now.
The market sees only a 22% chance that Los Angeles hits 79°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting a strong baseline expectation of cooler summer weather despite a historic March heatwave and record-warm ocean temperatures that could raise the risk of a late-July spike.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles shows that the average daily high on July 26 is around 84°F, with a roughly 30-40% chance of reaching 79°F or higher, so the current 22% odds are slightly below the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), raising concerns that extreme heat patterns could persist into summer and increase the likelihood of a high-temperature day in late July.
- • Record-breaking ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer marine layer, which can suppress coastal temperatures but also fuel heatwaves when offshore winds develop, creating uncertainty for the July 26 forecast.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates heightened institutional focus on heat-related risks, but does not directly alter the probability of a specific temperature threshold on a single day.
The case for YES
- • The historic March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) demonstrates that extreme temperature anomalies can occur well outside typical summer months, suggesting that a late-July high of 79°F is plausible if similar patterns recur.
- • Record-warm ocean temperatures (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could contribute to a warmer baseline, making it easier for a heat event to push temperatures above 79°F, especially if Santa Ana winds or a high-pressure ridge develop.
The case for NO
- • The 78% odds reflect the strong climatological tendency for Los Angeles coastal areas to remain cooler than inland regions in July, with marine layer clouds often keeping daytime highs below 79°F even during broader heatwaves.
- • The March heatwave (USA Today, Mar 17) was an extreme outlier and does not reliably predict summer conditions; seasonal forecasts may still favor a cooler-than-average July due to persistent marine influence.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026 long-range forecasts from NOAA or the National Weather Service (expected around July 15-20) could shift odds significantly: a predicted high-pressure ridge over the Southwest would increase the Yes probability, while a trough or marine layer forecast would boost No.
- • Any heatwave or record-breaking temperature event in Southern California during the two weeks before July 26 (e.g., July 15-25) would likely raise the Yes odds as it would signal favorable conditions for a high-temperature day.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance