Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, because the region has been experiencing a historic and persistent heat wave that makes a cooler day unlikely, but the specific target is tight enough that a brief marine layer or unusual trough could still trigger a Yes.
📊 Base rate: For Los Angeles in late July, the historical average daily high is about 84°F, so a high of exactly 78°F is roughly 6°F below normal and occurs on only a small fraction of days in the historical record.
What's driving it
- • A historic March 2026 heat wave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), setting a pattern of extreme warmth that has persisted into summer.
- • Ocean temperatures off California have repeatedly broken heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which tends to suppress the cooling marine layer and keep coastal temperatures elevated.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) reflects official recognition of rising heat risks, reinforcing the narrative that unusually high temperatures are the new normal.
The case for YES
- • The exact target of 78°F is below the historical average high for late July, so a cooler-than-normal day—perhaps from a brief marine layer or weak trough—could hit that mark.
- • Despite the heat wave trend, coastal Los Angeles can still see occasional cooler days due to June gloom or July gray, and the market's 5% odds may underprice that possibility.
- • No clear catalyst has recently pushed the odds lower; the 5% level may already reflect extreme pessimism, leaving room for a surprise if a short-term cooling pattern emerges.
The case for NO
- • The historic March heat wave (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17) and ongoing ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a sustained warm regime that makes a high of only 78°F in late July very unlikely.
- • Over 1,500 records were shattered in the Southwest during the March heat wave (FOX Weather, Mar 22), indicating a regional shift toward higher baseline temperatures that persists months later.
- • The new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) underscores that health officials are preparing for dangerous heat, implying expectations of temperatures well above 78°F.
What to watch
- • Any mid-July heat wave forecast for Southern California would push odds further toward No (lower Yes probability).
- • A forecast of a strong marine layer or unusual trough in the days before July 26 could increase Yes odds (higher Yes probability).
- • Release of the official NWS 8-14 day outlook for late July, if it shows below-normal temperatures, would be a catalyst for Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance