Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
Despite severe heat waves earlier in 2026, the market sees only a 5% chance of Los Angeles hitting exactly 78°F on July 25, indicating that the extreme heat events may shift the temperature distribution away from that moderate value.
📊 Base rate: Historically, the daily high temperature in Los Angeles in late July averages around 85°F, making the exact value of 78°F extremely rare (less than 1% of days).
What's driving it
- • The historic March heat wave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and persistent ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) signal a warmer baseline, reducing the likelihood of a mild exact temperature.
- • No recent headlines directly address the probability of exactly 78°F on July 25, so the market likely relies on long-term climatology and the implied shift from earlier extreme events.
- • The extreme heat events shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), suggesting that July 2026 could also see above-normal temperatures.
The case for YES
- • A marine layer or unusual cooling trend could bring temperatures down to exactly 78°F, though no such pattern is indicated in recent headlines.
- • The exact value of 78°F is a possible outcome if the day experiences a mix of cloud cover and sea breeze, but the probability remains low.
The case for NO
- • Typical July highs in Los Angeles are well above 78°F, with average around 85°F, making an exact 78°F unlikely.
- • The recent heat waves (USA Today, Mar 17; NYT, Mar 16) signal a warmer-than-normal pattern, further reducing the chance of a mild day.
- • Ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest sustained warmth that would push temperatures above 78°F.
What to watch
- • NO: Upcoming heat advisories or forecasts in the days before July 25 showing above-normal temperatures would further lower the already low probability.
- • NO: Any extended heat wave affecting Southern California in late July would virtually eliminate the chance of exactly 78°F.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance