Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

What's driving it

• • The 56% Yes on Rank 2, contrasted with 64% No on Rank 1, implies that year-to-date temperature anomalies position 2026 clearly below the record year (likely 2024) but above all other years.
• • The 98% No on Rank 3 and 100% No on Ranks 4,5,6 indicate the margin for error is very small; the market sees no plausible scenario where 2026 falls outside the top 2.
• • The implied certainty across all ranks suggests recent temperature data (through early 2026) has been consistent with a near-record but not record-breaking path.

What to watch

• • Release of mid-year global temperature anomaly data from NOAA or NASA around August 2026, which could solidify or shift the ranking estimate.
• • Publication of the final 2026 global temperature average by the World Meteorological Organization in early 2027, which will be the official determination.
• • El Niño/La Niña updates from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, as the phase can affect the latter half of the year's temperatures.