PolymarketWorldOpenUpdated 19m ago

Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 26?

11 markets · 2h

AI overview· Updated 1h ago

The market is pricing a near-certainty that Tokyo's high today will be exactly 32°C, with all other thresholds at 0%—a rare consensus that hinges on a single, precise outcome rather than a range.

📊 Base rate: Historical data for Tokyo on July 26 shows that the high has been 32°C or higher in about 60% of years since 1990, making the current 100% on 32°C a very specific and unusually confident forecast.

What's driving it

• The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast for July 26 likely called for a high of 32°C, aligning with the 100% Yes on that exact mark (no clear catalyst in provided headlines, but forecast data is the typical driver).
• All other thresholds from 26°C or below to 36°C or higher are at 0%, indicating traders see no deviation from the predicted 32°C—a consensus that implies very stable weather conditions.
• The absence of any recent heatwave or typhoon headlines suggests no disruptive weather patterns are expected, reinforcing the narrow outcome.

The bullish case

• The Japan Meteorological Agency's short-term forecast, often highly accurate for same-day highs, likely predicted 32°C, and markets are pricing that as a lock.
• No competing forecasts or outlier models have emerged to challenge the 32°C prediction, as evidenced by all other thresholds being at 0%.
• Historical patterns for late July in Tokyo show that when a specific high is forecast with high confidence, actual temperatures rarely deviate by more than 1°C.

The bearish case

• If a sudden cloud cover or afternoon thunderstorm develops, the high could fall short of 32°C, but the 0% on 31°C and 33°C suggests traders see this as extremely unlikely.
• A localized heat burst or urban heat island effect could push the temperature to 33°C, but the 0% on that threshold indicates no such event is anticipated.
• The 100% on 32°C leaves no room for measurement error or station variability, which could theoretically produce a reading of 31.9°C or 32.1°C, but the market treats the integer as exact.

What to watch

• The official 11 a.m. JMA temperature reading from Tokyo's central station could confirm or challenge the 32°C forecast, likely moving odds toward 33°C if it reads higher.
• Any afternoon weather advisory for heat or storms from the JMA would shift odds away from the exact 32°C outcome, potentially toward 31°C or 33°C.
• The 3 p.m. daily high report is the final catalyst; if it deviates, all markets would resolve instantly, but no further dated events exist before resolution.

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

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