PolymarketWorldOpenUpdated 18m ago

Highest temperature in Wellington on July 26?

11 markets · 2h

AI overview· Updated 12h ago

The market strongly expects Wellington's high on July 26 to be exactly 10°C, with a 61% probability, while 9°C and 11°C are seen as less likely alternatives.

📊 Base rate: The historical average high temperature in Wellington for July 26 is approximately 11°C, based on NIWA climate data from 1991-2020.

What's driving it

• The odds show a strong consensus on 10°C, with 61% probability, and negligible chances for temperatures outside the 9-11°C range.
• No recent headlines are provided to explain the current odds; the distribution likely reflects short-term forecast models.

The bullish case

• The market assigns the highest probability (61%) to exactly 10°C, making it the clear modal outcome.
• The probabilities for 9°C (11%) and 11°C (25%) are significantly lower, suggesting a narrow expected range.
• The complete absence of probability for 8°C or below and 12°C or above indicates that extreme deviations are not anticipated.

The bearish case

• There is a combined 39% chance that the high is not 10°C, with 11% for 9°C and 25% for 11°C.
• A stronger-than-expected southerly wind could keep temperatures lower, favoring 9°C.
• A brief clearance of cloud could allow more solar heating, pushing the high to 11°C.

What to watch

• The release of the official MetService forecast for July 26 on the morning of July 25 could shift probabilities toward 9°C or 11°C if it differs from current expectations.
• Updated weather model runs on the afternoon of July 25 may adjust the odds if they show a change in the expected high.
• The actual temperature reading at Wellington Airport around 2:00 PM NZST on July 26 will resolve the market.

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

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