PolymarketWorldOpenUpdated 17m ago
Highest temperature in Paris on July 26?
11 markets · 1h
AI overview· Updated 1h ago
The market is pricing near-certainty that the Paris high will stay below 29°C, with the most likely peak around 25°C—a notably cool July day for the city.
What's driving it
- • The 100% No on 29°C or higher indicates that weather models or current observations rule out a heatwave for this date.
- • The 52% No on 25°C suggests the market sees a roughly even chance that the high is exactly 25°C, making it the central estimate.
- • The sharp drop in No probability from 72% at 24°C to 78% at 26°C implies a narrow range of expected highs, consistent with a stable forecast.
The bullish case
- • If the actual high is 25°C, the market for 25°C would resolve Yes, which is currently near 50%—a plausible outcome given typical July averages.
- • A high of 25°C would be consistent with a partly cloudy day with no strong heat source, as often seen in Paris under maritime influence.
The bearish case
- • The market strongly expects the high to be below 29°C, so any temperature above that is extremely unlikely based on current data.
- • If the high is 24°C or 26°C, the 25°C market would resolve No, and the 24°C (72% No) and 26°C (78% No) odds suggest those are also plausible, but less likely than 25°C.
What to watch
- • The official Météo-France temperature reading later today (July 26) will resolve all markets immediately, confirming the actual high.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on July 26?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$1.2K Vol 0pts1h
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 26?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$1.4K Vol 0pts1h
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on July 26?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$5K Vol 1pts1h
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 26?
Yes2¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$5.3K Vol1h
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?
Yes11¢
No90¢
Yes ≈ 11% chance
$9.4K Vol 5pts1h
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 26?
Yes38¢
No63¢
Yes ≈ 38% chance
$7.7K Vol 0pts1h
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?
Yes42¢
No59¢
Yes ≈ 42% chance
$8.4K Vol 10pts1h
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 26?
Yes12¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 12% chance
$6.7K Vol 1pts1h
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 26?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$4.1K Vol 2pts1h
Polymarket
Open
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 26?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$2.1K Vol 0pts1h
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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