Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Yes ≈ 34% chance

✨ The market heavily favors RFK Jr. staying (No at 69%) despite a wave of scathing headlines from former CDC officials calling his tenure 'irreparable harm' and 'pure chaos'—the real story is that the criticism is coming from outside the administration, and no credible signal of removal or resignation has emerged.

Yes ≈ 28% chance

✨ Leavitt's own public comments distancing herself from Trump's political team and an awkward on-air correction have sparked demotion buzz, yet the market sees her formal departure as unlikely, reflecting that internal friction hasn't yet translated into an official exit.

Yes ≈ 18% chance

✨ Despite a canceled high-profile trip to Israel and Democratic scrutiny over blocked military promotions, Pete Hegseth remains actively in his role, and the market sees only a 21% chance he leaves the Trump administration before 2027—a slight decrease from last week.

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

✨ Bessent's odds of leaving are low despite his public defense of Trump's crypto earnings, as no recent headlines suggest friction or imminent departure, but the market may be underpricing the risk of a sudden resignation or removal given the administration's volatility.

Yes ≈ 11% chance

✨ Despite the market showing 100% odds for Tulsi Gabbard leaving the Trump administration by 2027, the provided headlines from June and early July 2026 do not contain a direct announcement of her departure, suggesting traders may be reacting to broader political pressure or an unconfirmed report.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ The market has already resolved to 'Yes' at 100% odds, meaning Pam Bondi's departure from the Trump administration before 2027 is effectively certain, with the key unresolved question being the timing and circumstances of her exit.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ Zeldin's low-profile role as EPA head amid deregulatory push and absence of scandal or high-profile conflict makes departure unlikely by end of 2026, though a 2026 gubernatorial run in NY or party pressure could force an exit.

Yes ≈ 25% chance

✨ Recent Democratic investigations into Lutnick's ties to Cantor Fitzgerald and a $1.6 billion rare earth deal have increased scrutiny, but the market still sees him as likely to stay—the odds reflect that probes rarely force immediate departures without a clear smoking gun.

Yes ≈ 35% chance

✨ The market is fully priced for Bongino's exit amid a reported intensifying dispute with the Attorney General, but the headlines show him still active in media feuds, creating a gap between betting certainty and observable behavior.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ Kash Patel is currently entrenched as FBI Director under Trump, but his social-media self-promotion and the administration's high turnover rate create a non-trivial chance he leaves before 2027.

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Yes ≈ 20% chance

✨ Dan Scavino's recent promotion to head the Presidential Personnel Office (May 26) suggests he is entrenched, yet the market gives 62% odds he leaves by year-end, likely driven by his cryptic post (Jun 1) and the historically high turnover in Trump's orbit.

Yes ≈ 28% chance

✨ David Sacks remains in the Trump administration despite the fallout from the $3.8 billion Trump memecoin loss and his own policy disagreements, with odds favoring his continued tenure as a reflection of his value to the president's crypto and AI agenda.

Yes ≈ 39% chance

✨ Despite the administration facing major controversies over Iran war costs and the DOGE shutdown, Russell Vought remains firmly in place as OMB director, with no credible signals of departure; the 90% No odds reflect the lack of any resignation rumors or visible friction.

Yes ≈ 37% chance

✨ Despite the market heavily favoring Tom Homan staying through 2026, recent headlines show him actively executing aggressive enforcement policies, which could either solidify his role or create political fallout that leads to an early exit.

Yes ≈ 28% chance

✨ The market sees Ratcliffe as relatively secure (70% No) despite the typical churn in a second-term administration, because recent headlines show him actively shaping CIA strategy on AI and cyber, not signaling departure.

Yes ≈ 18% chance

✨ Kristi Noem's odds of leaving the Trump administration are elevated by a fresh scandal over deleted Signal chats with Corey Lewandowski, but the 39% Yes price still reflects that most cabinet members serve out their term absent a forced exit or indictment.

Yes ≈ 25% chance

✨ The market has already priced in a 100% Yes resolution because multiple credible sources report that Lori Chavez-DeRemer has stepped down amid a federal misconduct investigation, and a permanent successor has been nominated, making her departure a fait accompli rather than a probabilistic event.

Yes ≈ 100% chance