Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

✨ The market is pricing a near-certain coronation of a Merz loyalist as the next CDU/CSU faction leader, but the real story is whether the swift replacement can stabilize Merz's chancellorship or if the surrogacy scandal has permanently weakened his grip on the party.

Yes ≈ 98% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The market is essentially a bet on whether Friedrich Merz's chosen successor (his chancellery chief, widely reported as Placeholder 5) will be elected as CDU/CSU faction leader, with even odds reflecting both Merz's control over the process and his unpopularity among the public and possibly within the party.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The market is perfectly split because the frontrunner, Merz's chancellery chief, is a clear favorite but faces a formal election that could still be contested by a rival faction within the CDU/CSU parliamentary group.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The race to replace Jens Spahn as CDU/CSU faction leader is a proxy battle between Friedrich Merz's inner circle and a broader conservative coalition, with the odds split 50/50 as Merz's preferred candidate faces resistance from those wary of concentrating power in the chancellery.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The 50/50 odds reflect a tug-of-war between Merz's clear preference for his chancellery chief as Spahn's successor and the potential for internal rebellion given Merz's own unpopularity, making the formal faction vote a genuine toss-up.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The 50/50 odds reflect a tug-of-war: Merz has publicly tapped a confidant (likely the chancellery chief) to lead the faction, but the surrogacy scandal that forced Spahn out and Merz’s own unpopularity give room for internal pushback or a surprise alternative.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The market is split because Merz is pushing his chancellery chief as the next faction leader, but his own unpopularity could fuel a rebellion within the CDU/CSU group.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The succession fight after Spahn's resignation is a proxy for Friedrich Merz's authority: his pick of the chancellery chief is the frontrunner, but Merz's own unpopularity could embolden a factional rebellion, keeping the odds at 50/50.

Yes ≈ 50% chance