Clacton by-election: 2nd place

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ Matthew Bensilum is a Liberal Democrat candidate in a Clacton by-election triggered by Nigel Farage's resignation, but the odds reflect that he is a long-shot for second place because Farage's Reform UK party is expected to dominate the race and other candidates, such as Labour or Conservative, are more likely to claim the runner-up spot.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ The market sees Natasha Osben as a near-certain loser for second place in the Clacton by-election, likely because she is not a major-party candidate and the contest is expected to be dominated by the Conservatives and Reform UK following Nigel Farage's resignation.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ Count Binface, a satirical candidate who dresses as a trash can, has become a symbolic threat to Nigel Farage in the Clacton by-election, with media framing turning him into a serious contender for second place despite his fringe status.

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

✨ Piers Corbyn's 2% odds reflect his status as a fringe protest candidate whose far-left and conspiracy-activist reputation isolates him from mainstream voters, making any strong second-place finish in Clacton extremely unlikely despite the by-election's unusual circumstances.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The by-election is effectively a race for second place with Farage's victory near-certain, and the 50/50 odds on Person E reflect genuine toss-up conditions as the anti-Farage vote could coalesce behind Person E or fragment across multiple novelty and minor-party candidates.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ The market is pricing a near-certain 'No' because there is no evidence that a candidate named 'John Stevens' is actually standing in the Clacton by-election, and all recent headlines about people with that name refer to unrelated individuals in the US or other contexts.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The 50/50 odds reflect extreme uncertainty about the identity of 'Person L', which is not specified in any headline, making the market a blind bet on an unnamed candidate's second-place finish in a chaotic by-election where Farage's resignation triggers a protest-vote scramble.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The 50/50 odds reflect deep uncertainty because 'Person U' is not a clearly identified candidate in any headline, and the record 34-candidate field (Al Jazeera, Jul 18) makes second-place prediction highly fragmented.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The 50/50 odds reflect uncertainty over whether a novelty candidate like Count Binface or a major-party second-place finisher will emerge as Farage's chief challenger, with the real story being whether anti-Farage sentiment consolidates behind a single non-serious or serious opponent.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The odds for Person AF taking second in Clacton are evenly split, reflecting a wide-open race with 34 candidates and no clear favorite for the runner-up spot behind Nigel Farage or Count Binface.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ With 34 candidates and Nigel Farage expected to win first place, the second-place race is a fragmented free-for-all where novelty candidates like Count Binface (backed by Boris Johnson) and minor-party unknowns could outpoll traditional runners-up, making Person AH's odds a coin flip despite no clear polling or media focus on them.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The 50/50 odds reflect a fog of war: the identity of 'Person AL' is not specified in any headline, and the race for second place in Clacton is fractured among multiple novelty and minor-party candidates, making any single contender's position a coin flip.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The 50/50 odds reflect a deeply fragmented field where the identity of second place is highly uncertain, not a toss-up between two known frontrunners.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The market is a pure toss-up because the 34-candidate field (Clacton Gazette, Jul 18) makes second-place extremely unpredictable, and no polls or named-candidate news exist for Person AR, while the novelty candidate Count Binface has captured all recent media attention (The Conversation, Jul 16; Al Jazeera, Jul 9).

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance