Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ Despite joint UK-France mission plans announced in early July, the market heavily discounts a French warship transit by the July 31 deadline, likely because no French ship has been confirmed to actually pass through the Strait and time is short; the slight 24-hour uptick reflects the mission announcements, but not enough to overcome skepticism.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 11% chance

✨ Despite diplomatic talk earlier in 2026 about European allies joining efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, the Netherlands and other European nations have explicitly rejected military involvement, and no recent headlines indicate a policy shift, making a Dutch warship transit before July 31 extremely unlikely.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ Germany has explicitly rejected any NATO role in the Strait of Hormuz as of July 6, making a warship transit by the July 31 deadline virtually impossible; the 1% Yes price reflects a tiny residual chance of a last-minute policy reversal or an unforeseen incident.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance