Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above ___ end of July?
13 markets · 5d
The market sees a narrow window for SPCX's end-of-July close, with strong confidence it will stay above $100 and below $150, and a roughly even split at $120 and $130, implying a consensus range of roughly $110-$130.
What's driving it
- • The steep drop in Yes probability from 60% at $120 to 41% at $130 suggests a clear resistance level near $120-$130.
- • The high Yes probabilities at $100 (89%) and $110 (85%) indicate strong support, making a drop below $100 unlikely.
- • The near-certain No at $150 (93%) and $190 (97%) shows the market expects no major breakout to the upside by month-end.
The bullish case
- • If SPCX maintains its recent momentum, it could close above $120, as the 60% Yes at that level suggests a slight edge.
- • Positive catalysts like strong earnings or favorable regulatory news could push the stock above $130, though the market currently gives that only a 41% chance.
The bearish case
- • The strong No at $130 (59%) indicates that resistance is expected to hold, possibly due to overvaluation concerns or sector headwinds.
- • The near-certain No at $150 and above shows that a significant rally is not anticipated, likely due to lack of near-term catalysts or broader market caution.
What to watch
- • Upcoming earnings report (if any) could either confirm support or break resistance; a beat would push odds higher for $130+, a miss would strengthen No at $120+.
- • Federal Reserve interest rate decision (if scheduled before end of July) could impact growth stocks like SPCX; a dovish outcome would favor Yes at higher strikes, hawkish would favor No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of July?
The market is nearly fully pricing in a July close above $90, yet recent headlines highlight a 45% drop, a looming lockup expiration of $800B in shares, and contrasting analyst targets ranging from $230 to $800, suggesting extreme divergence between bullish sentiment and supply-side risks.
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of July?
Yes ≈ 86% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?
SpaceX stock has plunged 45% from highs and faces a massive lockup expiration, yet the market still gives 76% odds it will close above $110 by month-end—a level that is far below recent analyst targets but still above the current price, suggesting traders are betting on a rebound despite the looming share overhang.
Yes ≈ 70% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $120 end of July?
SpaceX stock has been on a volatile ride: a 45% drop from highs has made it a potential bargain, but a massive insider lockup expiration looms, creating a tug-of-war between bullish long-term targets and near-term selling pressure that explains the 56% odds for a modest end-of-July rebound above $120.
Yes ≈ 42% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of July?
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $140 end of July?
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $150 end of July?
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $160 end of July?
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $170 end of July?
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $180 end of July?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $190 end of July?
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $200 end of July?
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $210 end of July?
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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