Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

✨ The market is pricing a 0% chance of Iran charging Hormuz fees by July 15, reflecting both that the deadline has passed and that the conflict has escalated into open military strikes rather than a toll scheme.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Iran has publicly announced Hormuz service fees and is coordinating with Oman, but the special treatment for 'friendly' nations and Trump's warning create ambiguity over whether the policy will be universally applied and enforced by the deadline.

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

✨ Iran has publicly announced Hormuz service fees despite US warnings, but the policy's carve-outs for 'friendly' nations and joint Omani implementation create ambiguity about whether it will apply broadly enough to meet the market's strict resolution criteria.

Yes ≈ 55% chance

✨ Iran has explicitly announced Hormuz service fees, but a joint Oman-Iran proposal and promised exemptions for 'friendly' countries create ambiguity on whether the policy will be general and enforced by year-end, keeping odds elevated but not certain.

Yes ≈ 63% chance