PolymarketPoliticsOpenUpdated 17m ago
Next President of New Caledonia
39 markets · 11mo
AI overview· Updated Jul 18, 2026
The market has priced Milakulo Tukumuli as the near-certain next president of New Caledonia, with all other candidates given zero probability, indicating a decisive outcome has already been determined or is effectively uncontested.
What's driving it
- • Tukumuli's Yes odds are at 99%, reflecting extreme market confidence in his victory.
- • All other named candidates have 100% No odds, showing the market sees no viable path for any alternative.
- • No recent headlines are provided to explain the move, so the odds likely stem from a prior event such as an election result or coalition agreement not captured in the data.
The bullish case
- • The market's near-unanimous backing implies a broad political consensus or a fait accompli in Tukumuli's favor.
- • The absence of any odds for rivals suggests no credible opposition remains, making his presidency all but certain.
- • Extreme probability levels (99%) historically indicate a resolved or non-competitive race.
The bearish case
- • The complete lack of support for any other candidate could be a market overreaction if a late entrant or legal challenge emerges.
- • New Caledonia's political landscape can shift rapidly due to independence referendums or court rulings, potentially upending a seemingly settled outcome.
- • Highly confident markets occasionally fail due to unforeseen events, such as a candidate's disqualification or a coalition collapse.
What to watch
- • No dated upcoming events are provided in the data; any future electoral certification, legal challenge, or political deal could sharply move the odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Polymarket
Open
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$15.6K Vol11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$6.9K Vol11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Louis Mapou be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$4.4K Vol11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Pascal Sawa be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes1¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$1.8K Vol11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Gil Brial be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$1.5K Vol11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person C be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person D be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
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Will Person E be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
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Will Person F be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
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Will Person G be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person H be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
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Will Person I be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person J be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person K be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
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Will Person L be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
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Will Person M be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
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Will Person N be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person O be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person P be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person Q be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person R be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person S be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person T be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person U be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person V be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person W be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person X be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person Y be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Person Z be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Polymarket
Open
Will someone else be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? — Other
Yes50¢
No50¢
Yes ≈ 50% chance
0pts11mo
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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