Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
19 markets · 2mo
The market is heavily tilted against any US-Iran peace talks occurring before October 2026, with the strongest bets on Qatar or Switzerland as the most plausible venues if talks do happen, but a high chance of no meeting at all.
📊 Base rate: Since the US and Iran last held direct talks in 2015, intermittent indirect negotiations have failed to produce a follow-up meeting, making a no-talks outcome the historical norm.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines report progress toward US-Iran dialogue, aligning with the 73% 'No Meeting by September 30' odds.
- • Qatar's 84% 'No' reflects its diminished role after hosting 2022 talks that stalled, with no new mediation efforts reported.
- • Switzerland's 78% 'No' suggests market skepticism despite its historical role as intermediary venue for past US-Iran talks.
The bullish case
- • If talks happen, Qatar or Switzerland are the most likely venues based on their prior roles and diplomatic infrastructure.
- • A surprise diplomatic opening could occur via backchannel mediation, with Oman or Pakistan as slim possibilities (both under 10% 'Yes').
The bearish case
- • The 73% 'No Meeting by September 30' odds indicate a strong baseline expectation of no talks, driven by ongoing tensions over Iran's nuclear program and US sanctions.
- • All venue markets show overwhelming 'No' odds (84-99%), reflecting a consensus that no single country has emerged as a credible host.
What to watch
- • Next IAEA Board of Governors meeting (September 2026): A report of Iran advancing enrichment could push odds of no talks higher.
- • Any announced diplomatic shuttle by a European or Gulf mediator before September 30 would increase yes-odds for that specific venue.
- • US presidential statement on Iran policy around the UN General Assembly (September 2026) could shift the no-meeting probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? — USA
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? — Other
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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