Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

✨ Even as the market implicitly expects the MOU framework to hold through June 26, unresolved regional spoilers—especially Israel's conditions on Lebanon and Tehran's insistence that Washington reciprocates first—keep a withdrawal announcement theoretically possible, though unlikely given the absence of any Iranian threat to quit.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The market is pricing an almost zero chance of a formal Iranian withdrawal announcement, despite Tehran's repeated declarations that the MOU is dead, because those statements have not constituted a definitive termination of the negotiation process called for by the market criteria.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ Despite multiple Iranian declarations that the MOU is 'dead' and a withdrawal from talks, the market is pricing a 0% chance of an official, formal termination announcement by July 7, suggesting traders see those statements as rhetorical or non-binding rather than a definitive legal withdrawal.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The near-consensus No odds reflect that the 60-day MOU negotiation window is still open and no serious threats to walk out have materialized, but a real risk remains if unresolved Lebanon and US compliance issues escalate into a public rupture.

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Despite Iran's public declarations that the MOU is dead and its halting of commitments, the market sees zero chance of a formal withdrawal announcement by the deadline, likely because the 60-day framework expires after July 17 and the market interprets the recent rhetoric as posturing rather than a definitive legal exit.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The market is pricing a 0% chance of Iran withdrawing from MOU negotiations by July 24, despite a flurry of recent headlines about Iran halting commitments and declaring the MOU dead, because the deadline is only hours away and no official withdrawal announcement has been made, making a last-minute reversal extremely unlikely.

Yes ≈ 0% chance