Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
5 markets · —
✨ Ask about this eventMarkets in this event
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? — 1480+
Market is highly confident (81%) the next Gemini Pro will debut above 1480, but recent news coverage focuses on Flash models, not Pro, making the odds based on extrapolation from past Pro improvements rather than imminent release.
Yes ≈ 87% chance
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? — 1490+
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? — 1500+
The market is skeptical (23% Yes) despite a recent 7-day uptick, largely because Google has been iterating on lower-tier Flash models (Gemini 3 Flash / 3.2 Flash surfaced in May 2026) without releasing a new Pro variant to the Arena leaderboard, making a sudden debut at 1500+ unlikely without a major performance breakthrough.
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? — 1510+
Despite recent activity around Gemini Flash models, no new Pro model has appeared on the Arena leaderboard since Gemini 3.1 Pro in February, and the 1510 threshold is very high; the recent upward odds movement likely reflects speculation that Google's rapid Flash iterations signal an imminent Pro release, but the base rate of Pro model scores makes a 'Yes' unlikely.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? — 1495+
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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